17.13.1. Yes. And cats will move in with dogs, Snapple will rain from
the sky, and P will be shown unequal to NP.
17.13.2. Seriously, the implications of strong privacy, of
cyberspatial economies, and of borders becoming transparent
are enormous. The way governments do business is already
changing, and this will change things even more dramatically.
The precise form may be unpredictable, but certain end states
are fairly easy to predict in broad brush strokes.
17.13.3. "How do we know the implications of crypto are what I've
claimed?"
- We can't know the future.
- Printing, railroads, electrification
17.13.4. "When will it all happen? When will strong crypto really
begin to have a major effect on the economy?"
+ Stages:
- The Prehistoric Era. Prior to 1975. NSA and other
intelligence agencies controlled most crypto work.
Cryptography seen as a hobby. DES just starting to be
deployed by banks and financial institutions.
- The Research Era. 1975-1992. Intense interest in public
key discovery, in various protocols. Start of several
"Crypto" conferences. Work on digital money, DC-Nets,
timestamping, etc.
- The Activism Era. 1992--?? (probably 1998). PGP 2.0
released. Cypherpunks formed. Clipper announced--meets
firestorm of protest. EFF, CPSR, EPIC, other groups.
"Wired" starts publication. Digital Telelphony, other
bills. Several attempts to start crypto businesses are
made...most founder.
- The Transition Era. After about 1999. Businesses start.
Digital cash needed for Net transactions. Networks and
computers fast enough to allow more robust protocols. Tax
havens flourish. "New Underworld Order" (credit to Claire
Sterling) flourishes.
- It is premature to expect that the current environment--
technological and regulatory--will be beneficial to the
type of strong crypto we favor. Too many pieces are
missing. Several more advances are needed. A few more
failures are also needed (gulp!) to show better how not to
proceed.
17.13.5. "But will crypto anarchy actually happen?"
- To a growing extent, it already is happening. Look at the
so-called illegal markets, the flows of drug money around
the world, the transfer of billions of dollars a day on
mere "chop marks," and the thriving trade in banned items.
- "Grey and black capitalism is already a major component of
international cash flows....Once adequate user friendly
software is available, the internet will accellerate this
already existing trend....Crypto anarchy is merely the
application of modern tools to assist covert capitalism."
[James Donald, 1994-08-29]
- There are arguments that a Great Crackdown is coming, that
governments will shut down illegal markets, will stop
strong crypto, will force underground economies
aboveground. This is doubtful--it's been tried for the past
several decades (or more). Prohibition merely made crime
more organized; ditto for the War on (Some) Drugs.
17.13.6. "Has the point of no return been passed on strong crypto?"
- Actually, I think that in the U.S. at least, the point was
passed decades ago, possibly a century or more ago, and
that any hope of controlling strong crypto and private
communication evaporated long ago. Abuses by the FBI in
wiretapping Americans, and reports of NSA monitoring of
domestic communications notwithstanding, it is
essentially.....
By Tim May, see README
HTML by Jonathan Rochkind